The national Beer Pong League

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Author Message
Joined: 10.17.2008

Age: 28
Total Games: 14
W/L %: 64.29
Avg CD: 0.57
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 01:44 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • Personally I think that tracking stats is about as annoying as it gets.  It interrupts the flow of the game, and shooting percentage is not always a great indicator skill anyway (I could go into a lot more depth on this, but I'd rather not write a novel right now).  A long-run 40% shooter can be a better player than a long-run 50% shooter in some cases.  As I've written on the Stanford Beirut message board, a better stat to measure a player's skill would be something like "opponent- and partner-neutral winning percentage."  Shooting percentage doesn't mean jack shit in the big scheme of things.
     
    If you guys really think it's that important to track stats, get someone else to do it, but just don't have the douchebag hovering over me the whole time.  Again, having it in your face interrupts the flow of the game and affects your play.  Do you see NBA players pulling out a pen and paper to mark down every made/missed shot, assist, rebound, block, steal, foul, etc?
     
    There are only two stats that matter to me: [some big number]-0 (our won-loss record) and $50,000 (our winnings).  You guys can pencil-push and overanalyze all you want.  I am just going to play my game, hit cups, drink beer, and collect cash.
     
    That's all.
Joined: 08.22.2006

Age: 30
Total Games: 145
W/L %: 77.24
Avg CD: 1.70
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 02:05 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • "dam_O_nation"
    shooting percentage is not always a great indicator skill anyway (I could go into a lot more depth on this, but I'd rather not write a novel right now).

    In this wonderful game, shooting percentage is pretty much the only indicator of skill.  Perhaps there are other factors to why someone is valuable to a team (their defense, distractions, energy), but games are won by hitting cups.  A shooting percentage gives a pretty accurate description of well they can hit cups.    
     
    "dam_O_nation"
    A long-run 40% shooter can be a better player than a long-run 50% shooter in some cases.....Shooting percentage doesn't mean jack shit in the big scheme of things.

    Not in the cases where the 40% shooter shoots 40%, and the 50% shooter shoots 50% - which in the long run, is all the time.  If what you're trying to say is that a 40% shooter might be better in clutch situations, or can play better against really good teams - then I might agree with your assessment, but only after you show me the stats.  
     
    Straight percentages tell a pretty good story, unless the 50% shooter is always playing with a 70% shooter, or always playing against 70% shooters (so is taking less shots per game than an average 50% shooter).  Again though - anything that might say that a 40% shooter is better than a 50% shooter could all be determined from statistical analysis.  In the meantime, I'll play with the 50% shooter.  
  • Last edited on Nov 13th 2008, 02:05 pm
Joined: 11.30.2007

Age: 28
Total Games: 136
W/L %: 75.74
Avg CD: 1.98
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 03:15 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • lol i like how he mentions the stanford boards like that lends his position more credibility.
     
    Anyway, I have mentioned this once before but it might be along the lines of his point.
    I once tracked states for a 4 team championship tournament that I won.
     
    It turned out that my team had the lowest overall shooting percent of the tournament.
    It was a very interesting discovery.
     
    How did this happen?
    Well for one - yes we did make a number of very clutch shots.
    When it came down to do or die the cups were made, and this is the mark of a strong player.
     
    On the other hand - We also had the easiest games.
    I think this is really what made our win possible, and you could also make the argument that sometimes people play down to their opponents. Maybe we would have shot better if we needed to, but in all of the games we played our opponents weren't hitting very well.
     
    So all of the other teams played really well against each other, but only moderately okay against us and we ended up winning.
Joined: 08.20.2008

Age: 27
Total Games: 47
W/L %: 80.85
Avg CD: 2.30
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 03:30 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • dam, i'm jsut going to repost what i said on the other message board:
     
    W/L is definitely the most important stat in beer pong, no doubt about it. I would much rather win a game shooting 40% than loose a game shooting 60%.
     
    That said, I still think shooting percentage tells you more about a player or team than their W/L record. Think about it, would you rather pick a partner based on their W/L record or shooting percentage? Someone could have a 90% winning percentage because they played all their games against chumps. On the other hand, a long term 50% shooter is almost certainly a really good player. Also, would you be more worried about playing a team that has a 90% winning percentage, or a 60% shooting percentage?
     
    Overall, shooting stats tell a good story. Though aside from staight up shooting percentage, I would like to see a stat that adjusts shooting percentage for the number of cups left on the table. It's definitely true that many teams don't shoot as well against weak opponents since their is a lesser sense of urgency and less pressure.
  • Last edited on Nov 13th 2008, 03:39 pm
Joined: 08.20.2008

Age: 27
Total Games: 47
W/L %: 80.85
Avg CD: 2.30
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 03:38 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • also, i won't be suprised if this post get's deleted fairly quickly, but  http://www.pongtracker.com can give you a more accurate depiction of someones shooting percentage since you can use the stat tracking tool to mark specific cups as they are hit. it requires a bit more effort than just counting hits and misses but afterwards you can look back at the game log as well as look at shooting % stats on particular racks... that way you can easily see if someone is clutch or not.
     
    i would even volunteer my time (though not all of it) at the WS to track games, though the bpong guys prob won't allow it since they think we are competing with them. we are not in the business of running tournaments, we just want to provide a place where bpong players can set up their own leagues, track stats, connect with other players, and just spread the beer pong love in general. i doubt we will ever make any serious money off the site, it's more of a hobby than anything.
  • Last edited on Nov 13th 2008, 06:36 pm
Joined: 08.16.2007

Age: 27
Total Games: 38
W/L %: 65.79
Avg CD: 1.16
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 06:04 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • "wianek"
    also, i won't be suprised if this post get's deleted fairly quickly, but  http://www.pongtracker.com can give you a more accurate depiction of someones shooting percentage since you can use the stat tracking tool to mark specific cups as they are hit. you can then look back at the game log as well as look at shooting % stats on particular racks... that way you can easily see if someone is clutch or not.
     
    i would even volunteer my time (though not all of it) at the WS to track games, though the bpong guys prob won't allow it since they think we are competing with them. we are not in the business of running tournaments, we just want to provide a place where bpong players can set up their own leagues, track stats, and connect with other players.

    What stops people from lying about their games on this website?
Joined: 08.20.2008

Age: 27
Total Games: 47
W/L %: 80.85
Avg CD: 2.30
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 06:22 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • "solidgold"

     
    What stops people from lying about their games on this website?

    sure, it is possible to lie, but what good will that really do you? you can pad your shooting percentage, but if you ever play in a serious tourney like the WS or even a satellite, it will become obvious you lied.
     
    also, there is an option where league admins have to approve any game submitted - if a game looks suspect then don't approve it.  that said, of course you can start your own league and make up games.
     
    in the end, it's kind of like the honor system. personally i want to figure out my true shooting percentage. boasting about a fake shooting percentage is just lame...
  • Last edited on Nov 13th 2008, 06:23 pm
Joined: 10.17.2008

Age: 28
Total Games: 14
W/L %: 64.29
Avg CD: 0.57
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 07:03 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • "wianek"
    "solidgold"

     
    What stops people from lying about their games on this website?

    sure, it is possible to lie, but what good will that really do you? you can pad your shooting percentage, but if you ever play in a serious tourney like the WS or even a satellite, it will become obvious you lied.
     
    also, there is an option where league admins have to approve any game submitted - if a game looks suspect then don't approve it.  that said, of course you can start your own league and make up games.
     
    in the end, it's kind of like the honor system. personally i want to figure out my true shooting percentage. boasting about a fake shooting percentage is just lame...

    Piotr, a lot of people lie about or exaggerate their percentages in this game.  You can never take what someone claims they shot at face value.
     
    sfoster, you are right that the phenomenon of "playing down to your opponents" is common in beirut.  Some players do it and others don't.  If it's a blowout anyway, it shouldn't really matter.  Percentages alone don't factor this in.  What you mention is an example of Simpson's Paradox - even though you shot a better percentage than your opponents in each individual game, many of them outshot you on an overall basis.
     
    As for this joke Stanford league you mock, just so you know we founded it in 2004 and it's now in its 9th season.  There have been over 50 teams signed up in every season and over 100 on one occasion, and the league has produced many teams that play at nearly the same level as the top teams in the world, as we have shown at various WSOBP satellites.
     
    But anyway, for starters, here is what I posted on the Stanford board earlier about the shortcomings of shooting percentages:
     
    With all this talk about shooting percentages, I figure I should state my case again why it's not a very good stat in the first place. Here are a few things it misses:
     
    1) Defense. Good D can definitely make up for 2-3% of shooting, and bad/lazy/careless D or knockovers can do the opposite.
     
    2) Clutch performance. If someone is a 50% shooter overall, but is 90% on a 10-rack and only 10% on last cup, that player is not nearly as good as his percentage suggests. Likewise, a player who is clutch on last cups, sendbacks, and rebuttal shots is probably better than his percentage suggests. Some players usually shoot well but rarely hit the last cup, and others (myself for example) shoot better on the last cup than on some "easier" racks.
     
    3) The mental game. Someone could be a good shooter overall but bad under pressure, or just the opposite. Also, someone can have a good or bad attitude that affects not just their shooting, but their partner's also. I know at certain times in the past for example, I have gotten outwardly mad at myself and this has thrown off both my game and my partner's. This is definitely worse than just missing shots.
     
    4) Letting up when the game is in hand. When playing a bad team, some players will consciously or unconsciously let up on their game and shoot worse. I know I do this sometimes. If you have no chance of losing either way, this should not count against someone much.
     
    5) Drunkenness. Some players may play when they're extremely wasted more often, and this will lower their percentages if stats are recorded at these times.
     
    6) Situational factors. A player who tends to shoot first rather than second and even a player with a bad partner will see their percentages slightly higher than they would otherwise be. This is simply because on average they are shooting on better racks. This could easily make a 3-5% difference in the long run.
     
    The fact is what really matters is not shooting percentage or cup differential or whatever, it's whether you win or lose. The baseball stat gurus have a statistic called "Win Shares" that quantifies a player's total contribution toward what really matters: wins. Beirut could have something like this, maybe called "Partner and Opponent-neutral Win Percentage" that could be derived from normalizing winning percentage based on the winning percentages of people you play with and against. Of course if you always play with the same person this could be tough to measure.
     
    This is probably still more than most players care to keep track of, but I'm just saying, between a long-run 45% shooter and a long-run 50% shooter, the 50% shooter is usually the better player, but not always.
Joined: 03.12.2008

Age: 27
Total Games: 12
W/L %: 58.33
Avg CD: 0.25
  • Quote

    Posted: Nov 13th 2008, 07:53 pm
    Post subject: Tracking Stats at WSOBP IV

  • zzzzzzzzzzzzzz....i'm ready to play some pong
  • Last edited on Nov 13th 2008, 08:04 pm
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